mens louis vuitton shoes: 十一月 2013

2013年11月20日星期三

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??I??m learning to say ??y??all?? and I like grits,” Mitt Romney recently told a crowd in Pascagoula, Mississippi.louis vuitton handbags for sale “Strange things are happening to me.?? But has the Boston private equity executive turned Republican technocrat turned presidential front-runner, whom the latest polls shows running even with Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich in Tuesday’s southern primary states, really undergone a deep-fried conservative metamorphosis? Don’t count on it, even if Romney outperforms expectations tonight in Mississippi and Alabama. According to Public Policy Polling, Romney is clocking 31% support in Mississippi, where Gingrich leads with 33% and Santorum notches 27%, and in Alabama, where Gingrich pulls 30% and Santorum 29%. A major factor in these narrow margins is that Santorum and Gingrich are evenly splitting those who consider themselves “very conservative” — Gingrich picks up many of the Tea Party-inclined, while Santorum dazzles Evangelicals, who comprise a huge chunk of the electorate in the Deep South.gucci outlet online Romney is also benefiting from the fact that both contests are open primaries — he polls well among Democrats and those who consider themselves moderate or somewhat liberal. (MORE: Romney May Not Like Gingrich, but He Can??t Live Without Him) The surveys could be wildly misstating the balance of these contests. New York Times polling arbiter Nate Silver points out that pollsters badly missed the mark in both parties’ Alabama primaries in 2008, miscalculating?the GOP ledger by as much as 20 points. And in the contests so far in 2012, the larger the Evangelical bloc, the worse Romney has performed.louis vuitton backpack for sale Born-again turnout in both Mississippi and Alabama will likely top 70% or 80% on Tuesday, a portion as large or larger than the Evangelical blocs in South Carolina, which Romney lost to Gingrich in January, and in Tennessee and Oklahoma, which Romney lost to Santorum on Super Tuesday. Either way, that leaves us with suspenseful primaries to watch on Tuesday night, but not ones in which Romney will likely demonstrate a transformation of his appeal to arch-conservatives in Dixie. Does that matter? Santorum is arguing that it does. On Monday, his campaign sent around a memo entitled “Santorum Path to Delegate Victory,” which one might have thought was a document laying out how their guy could win the Republican nomination.loui vuitton But it wasn’t really. Sure, consultant John Patrick Yob made the case that Santorum’s advantage with activists will help swing local conventions, which allocate delegates in most caucus states (Ron Paul’s strategy, basically), and that the primary calender is back-loaded with some favorable contests for Santorum, with Texas being the biggie on May 29. But the memo mostly belabored Romney’s well-trod problems with conservatives, an exercise that exposed the true nature of the Republican contest going forward. Santorum isn’t playing for a first-ballot win at the convention in Tampa anymore; he’s trying to deny Romney the majority he needs to get one.chanel outlet (MORE: Newt Gingrich Probably Can??t Win, but That Doesn??t Mean He??s Going Anywhere) It’s right there in the memo: “Majority Needed for Romney, Not for Santorum” one section reads, claiming that if Mitt fails to secure a first-round victory, the activists will rally to his more conservative rival. “If the opportunity provides itself in an open convention, they are not going to nominate a moderate Massachusetts governor who has been outspending his opponent 10-to-1 and can’t win the election outright,” Santorum explained to NBC on Monday. Santorum’s convention spin aside, whether Romney can in fact win outright is the real question. To that end, here’s some basic math from delegate dowsing rod Josh Putnam: Romney has won 391 bound or pledged delegates, 59% of those handed out to date and is roughly a third of the way to 1,144, the number required to clinch the nomination.louis vuitton handbags for sale Santorum has won 133, 20% to date and little more than a tenth of what he’d need to get a majority. At 112, Gingrich isn’t far behind Santorum. In short, Romney is on track. And if he wins a third of the vote Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama’s primaries, which will likely allocate most of their 90 delegates proportionally, he’ll still be in good shape, southern reinvention or not.louis vuitton replica
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Administrations officials weigh accelerating Afghan withdrawal in the wake of killings.chanel outlet A CBS/NYT polls finds a worse outlook on Obama and the economy. Alabama and Mississippi wins would be a big deal for Romney. He’s found a big advantage in mastery of early voting. Conservatives didn’t come to Romney, he went to them.replica gucci shoes Wealthy 65-year-old declines Medicare, won’t collect Social Security. For Santorum, Dutch euthanasia statistics are a matter of the heart. Noted redneck taxonomist Jeff Foxworthy talks up Romney on the campaign trail. And you might be a millionaire Mormon former Massachusetts governor running for President if you have meatloaf cakes for your birthday.fake ugg boots
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The New York Times takes a good look today at Democratic super PACs and their continuing fundraising troubles, tracking down various donors and cash-wranglers to find out where the problems lie.replica chanel shoes The answers are pretty interesting: There’s run-of-the-mill policy disagreement and radio silence from George “Not Much Difference Between Romney and Obama” Soros, but many donors seem to have been swayed in one fashion or another by the ongoing Republican presidential primary. Anecdotally, there’s a bloc of Democratic pollyannas who aren’t giving because they don’t think Obama can lose. Bill Maher, one of the lonely souls to write a $1 million check to the President’s super PAC, says he made his donation after talking to rich Hollywood types at the Grammy’s who were convinced Barack is bulletproof. Why might they think that? Economic pickup might be part of it, but six months of Republican primary knife fights seem the likeliest culprit.fake gucci shoes That’s not all: According to the Times, Newt Gingrich’s brief but intense bombardment of Mitt Romney’s tenure at Bain Capital in January has spooked Wall Streeters worried that any money they give to Obama-backing super PACs will eventually go to similar ads. Their suspicion is probably right, but count it as another reason for Democrats to resent Gingrich after he unleashed the Bain beast before they’d have liked. Here’s the really headspinning reason though: [M]any big liberal donors are simply uneasy about the unlimited money now sloshing around in the campaign, according to interviews with donors and consultants. ??Some of the major donors on the left see it as a bit unseemly,?? said Steve Phillips, the chairman of?PowerPAC.fake louis vuittonorg, which ran advertisements backing Mr. Obama in the 2008 primaries and organized voter mobilization, raising more than $10 million, much of it from a half-dozen big donors. You can interpret that comment in one of two ways: Either these donors watched as Sheldon Adleson et al. drastically influenced the Republican primary with super PAC dollars and had a crisis of conscience, deciding that funneling large amounts of their cash to elections was “unseemly.louis vuitton neverfull” Or two years of Democrats’ outrage at Republicans over Citizens United, which allowed unlimited corporate giving (individuals have long had outlets for their blank checks), has backfired a bit, making their own donors feel icky about the process. A poll this week found that 69% of Americans want super PACs banned. Maybe that’s a messaging coup for the left. But if they’ve skeeved out their megadonors without getting any closer to passing new campaign finance rules–they’d need a Democratic Congress at minimum and possibly a constitutional amendment to undo Citizens United–it’s something of a Pyrrhic victory.chanel handbags for sale Meanwhile, as the Times reports, they’re dealing with a major handicap for the fall.
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Rick Santorum eked out a pair of pivotal victories in the Deep South on Tuesday night, winning hard-fought battles in Alabama and Mississippi that cement his standing as Mitt Romney’s chief challenger and could push Newt Gingrich out of the race.handbags louis vuitton With 86% of precincts reporting, Santorum notched 35% of the vote in Alabama, with Gingrich and Romney locked at 29%. He pulled out a three-way nail-biter in neighboring Mississippi, drawing 33% to 32% apiece for Gingrich and Romney. The result seemed to surprise even him. “We did it again,” he said with a note of shock in his voice as he stepped out to address supporters just before 11 p.handbags louis vuittonm. In a sign that he outpaced even his own campaign’s expectations, Santorum had already skipped over to Louisiana, which votes next week. Candidates rarely pass up the chance for an on-site victory lap, but Santorum had never led in a Mississippi poll. (PHOTOS: The Southern Super Tuesday) With tight victories in two states which allocate their combined 84 delegates proportionally, Santorum didn’t do much to eat into Romney’s delegate lead.louis vuitton replica (Romney could, in fact, still win the night, if not the narrative, by capturing the 26 combined delegates in Hawaii and American Samoa, where polls closed at 2 a.m. ET. And he did manage to salvage a win in the night’s two Pacific island contests by being victorious in the Hawaii caucuses and won the support of all nine delegates at the GOP caucuses in American Samoa).louis vuitton replica But the wins restore the spotlight that will allow Santorum to retrench and raise money, while robbing his rivals of triumphs they badly wanted. Romney’s camp hoped a victory in the Deep South would dispel the obstinate fact that he has struggled to win over the staunchly conservative, Tea Party and Evangelical voters who form the crux of the GOP base. Exit polls showed Romney ahead in Mississippi, by many measures the most conservative state in the Union–81% of voters described themselves as Evangelical or born-again–and pundits crowed that a win in the reddest of red states would suck the last vestiges of drama from a race that now looks certain to drag on indefinitely. For Gingrich, winning in the conservative heartland was not a luxury but a necessity.ugg boots outlet Pigeonholing himself as a regional candidate, the former House Speaker indicated after his win in Georgia that he expected to capture both Deep South contests. “From Spartanburg all the way to Texas, those all need to go for Gingrich,” said the candidate’s spokesman, R.C. Hammond, who said Newt needed victories in both states to remain a credible contender for the nomination.louis vuitton handbags for sale In recent days, as surveyes showed the three candidates locked in a near dead heat, the Gingrich camp furiously backpedaled from those statements. Advisers released a strategy memo that framed the race as only now nearing “halftime.” But Gingrich has less than one-quarter of Romney’s delegates and has proven a less formidable national candidate than Santorum. (MORE: Why Romney Can’t Live Without Gingrich) In the coming days, Gingrich is likely to be bombarded by a steady stream of back-channel pressure, as conservatives eager to clear a path for Santorum urge him to bow out of the race.fake louis vuitton Which is why Tuesday night’s results were doubly bitter for Romney, who was not only denied a huge symbolic victory but also may lose the benefit of the fractured conservative vote that has been his saving grace. Both Mississippi and Alabama tracked with the demographic patterns set by their primary predecessors. Santorum won a plurality with very conservative voters, Tea Party supporters, those earning between $30,000 and $100,000, the outsize Evangelical communities (some 80% of Mississippians described themselves as born-again, as did 75% of Alabamans) and voters who said religious beliefs mattered “a great deal.” He vacuumed votes in rural precincts and held down Romney’s margins in the more moderate population centers where Romney has performed best throughout the primary cycle.fake chanel shoes Once again, Romney patched together a coalition of affluent, exurban moderates who prized electability. He did well with elderly voters and Republicans leery of the Tea Party. Exit polls suggested that after scoring in the mid-20s with Evangelical voters in three previous Southern primaries, he did a little better this time: in Mississippi, he registered 29% with that cohort, according to CNN exit polls, which again lagged behind Gingrich and Santorum. (MORE: How Romney Can Win) Santorum’s doubleheader sweep is certain to prompt a torrent of breathless hyperbole about his ascendancy and Romney’s lingering weakness.louis vuitton neverfull It was an impressive night for the Pennsylvanian, who has now added a trio of Southern states to his column. But from a mathematical perspective, his grand conquest changes very little. Romney still boasts a hefty lead and remains the only candidate with a legitimate shot at accruing the 1,144 delegates required to sew up the nomination before Tampa. “There will be no ground our opponents have made up,” said Romney aide Eric Fehrnstrom, who called the contests an “away game” for Romney.replica chanel shoes The asterisk in that assessment is Gingrich’s future. Speaking Tuesday night in Birmingham, the former Speaker sounded defiant, stressing that he would plow forward toward Tampa. “I emphasize going to Tampa,” he said, because the evening disproved proved the media’s coronation of Romney as the “inevitable” nominee. “If you’re the front-runner and keep coming in third, you’re not much of a front-runner,” Gingrich declared.chanel handbags for sale It’s a snappy zinger, but overall Gingrich is the guy in third. Whether Gingrich’s ego will trump his grasp of math is the question looming over the race over the next week, as the candidates eye a clash in Illinois. “After tonight, it’s going to be a two-person race. It’s going to be Rick and Mitt,” said Alice Stewart, Santorum’s spokeswoman.fake louis vuitton shoes That would make Romney’s road tougher, but he’s still the one with the inside track to the nomination.
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2013年11月19日星期二

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An accounting firm called Baker Tilly (??Candor.louis vuitton outlet online Insight. Results.??) sent me an e-mail last Thursday with the following subject line: Waste to Energy at International Cheese Technology Expo It took me a little while to get my head around the full power of this beautifully terse and irresistibly earnest pitch. We were dealing here not just with cheese technology, but an entire expo devoted to it.fake uggs Moreover, during this expo the benefits of converting cheese production waste into energy were, apparently, to be discussed. This cleverly front-loaded twist????Waste to Energy????was, on its own merits, a near-perfect teaser. Are we talking whey? Cow dung? (Both, it turns out!) It was almost impossible not to read on. I don??t need to tell you that cheese technology is big business.louis vuitton shoes replica Not for nothing is Baker Tilly, a serious and fast growing firm with $242 million in 2011 revenue, co-sponsoring the International Cheese Technology Expo (ICTE) and its eagerly awaited April 12 keynote speech by ??Miracle on the Hudson?? co-pilot Jeff Skiles (Sully sadly unavailable). Americans eat a lot of cheese, reports “Amber Waves” the USDA’s award-winning eZine on the economics of food, farming, natural resources and rural America : ??Average annual U.S. cheese consumption nearly tripled between 1970 and 2003, from 11 pounds per person to 31 pounds,?? reports Amber Waves.fake ugg boots Take a look at this graphic: (Fascinating side note: thanks to the well-documented post-70s Mozzarella surge, that favorite pizza topper passed cheddar in 2002 as America’s most popular cheese.) Now, if you think tripling our cheese consumption over 33 years is a problem, you??re wrong: it??s an opportunity. Few things are more American than using technology to ameliorate indiscipline. Gargantua-level consumption of cheese is to be embraced, not scorned, for the desperately needed energy it can help our country produce.fake chanel shoes All major politicians in both parties have embraced an ??all-of-the-above?? energy policy; what part of ??all-of-the-above?? does the anti-cheese-waste-energy lobby not understand? I called Baker Tilly marketing manager, Trula Hensler, to find out. America??s cheese waste energy boom is an equal-parts by-product, as it were, of America??s love of farm subsidies and President Barack Obama??s green energy push. Baker Tilly is at the forefront of helping firms milk the opportunities. Says Hensler, ??We??ve had a lot of experience with anaerobic digesters, from the financing portion to the engineers, [but] a specialty in our firm are the tax credits and incentives that work into this.gucci outlet online?? I asked what anaerobic digesters were; Hensler just laughed. If you must know, they??re biogas facilities that take manure, crop waste and other things, mix them with special bacteria in an oxygen free environment?and turn them into methane. Here??s a PDF. (PHOTOS:?Political Pictures of the Week) Baker Tilly says there??s a lot of money to be made tapping into government tax credits for biorefining via anaerobic digesters.handbags louis vuitton A food processing company that needs to expand its business and builds a $10 million anaerobic digester plant, for example, can cut their costs by 50% in part by using Obama’s green energy tax credits, write Brad DeNoyer and Cory Wendt of Baker Tilly. And then there are the federal subsidy?programs like those at the Department of Agriculture funding biogas refineries at farms since 1994. President Obama??s 2013 budget calls for $6.1 billion in loans to rural electric utilities and cooperatives for renewable energy promotion.louis vuitton belts How much energy do the rest of us Americans get for all these subsidies? Well, in 2011, the U.S. produced 541 million kilowatt hours of power at 176 digester plants, up from 200 million kWh in 2007. Which is great news.fake chanel shoes America used nearly 3,884 billion kWh of electricity in 2010, so if we can take our cheese consumption up to something like 236,917 pounds per person per year–650 pounds a day give or take a wheel of Monterey Jack–our energy problems will be solved.
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Romney’s everyman NASCAR credentials: “[I don't follow] as closely as some of the most ardent fans, but I have some friends who are NASCAR team owners.fake louis vuitton shoes” Weekend polls put him way ahead in Arizona, virtually tied in Michigan and behind in Ohio. Santorum makes his fiscal conservative case to the Wall Street Journal, but he’s still fighting the culture wars on separation of church and state and higher ed. (It’s always on his mind.) Anecdotally, college is for snobs hits the right note with Michigan Tea Partyers.fake ugg boots John Heilemann on the GOPocalypse primary. Obama’s feeding on it. The State Department warns on Syria’s chemical weapons cache. $77 million Medicare fraud-finder finds $7,000 in fraud.fake uggs The Supreme Court’s chances of ending Affirmative Action. And Wyoming prepares for Doomsday.
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In endorsing Mitt Romney for President, the editorial board of the Detroit News argues that, at least for now, it does not: We disagree with Romney on a point vital to Michigan ?? his opposition to the bailout of the domestic automobile industry.handbags louis vuitton Romney advocated for a more traditional bankruptcy process, while we believe the bridge loans provided by the federal government in the fall of 2008 were absolutely essential to the survival of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Corp. The issue isn’t a differentiator in the GOP primary, since the entire field opposed the rescue effort. This last part is true, although Romney, both responding to journalists and mounting his own pro-active defense of the now famous “let Detroit go bankrupt” op-ed from 2008, has talked a lot more about his opposition to the rescue plan in recent weeks than any other candidate.louis vuitton shoes replica So does this have an appreciable political effect? Yes and no. In the primary, it really looks like a wash. Public Policy Polling this week found a third of Republicans there say they’re more likely to vote for someone who opposed the rescue, compared to 27% who see it as a liability and 35% who say they don’t care. The general election numbers are different though.louis vuitton outlet online Obama leads the GOP field by around 20 points in Michigan, according to Marist, in part on strength derived from the popular auto bailout: 63% of voters say it was a good thing, including 42% of Republicans, and most think Obama deserves credit for the policy. That might explain why Romney seized the opportunity of a primary campaign to try to shore up his position. Democrats are moving as well. Here’s an ad from the Obama-backing super PAC Priorities USA running this week in Michigan with $238,000 behind it.fake ugg boots If you listen carefully, you’ll hear Romney say the word “bankrupt” 12 times.
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2013年11月13日星期三

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There are two realities on the campaign trail: the one visible to dispassionate observers, and the reality the candidate inhabits.louis vuitton outlet online In Newt Gingrich’s bubble, Super Tuesday was a triumph: the benchmark he set was to win his home state, and he coasted to victory. Remove the rose-colored glasses and the landscape looks uglier. Gingrich won just one in 10 states, and finished dead last in half. Overall, Gingrich has won just 2 of 22 contests thus far, lags a distant third in the unofficial delegate counts, and would need to capture some 70% of the remaining delegates to eclipse Mitt Romney’s edge.cheap gucci belts It would take an “act of God,” one of Romney’s advisers said, for Gingrich or Rick Santorum to prevent Romney’s coronation. The math suggests they can only postpone it. Of course, each rival’s chances increase with the exit of the other, which is why Santorum’s camp is trying to push Gingrich out of the race before the uphill climb to oust Romney gets any steeper. Over the past 48 hours, a chorus of Santorum supporters has called on Gingrich to step aside.handbags louis vuitton ??Based on his electoral performance last night and his out-of-step record, it is time for Newt Gingrich to exit the Republican nominating process,?? wrote Stuart Roy, an adviser to the pro-Santorum Red, White and Blue PAC. ??His campaign is an obvious non-starter.?? A cadre of veteran social conservatives backing Santorum — including Gary Bauer, Richard Viguerie and Tony Perkins — have all urged Gingrich to step aside to give movement conservatives a chance to deny Romney the nomination. In an appeal to Gingrich’s vaunted vanity, Perkins suggested the former House Speaker “has never been in a more influential position in deciding the outcome of the nomination; he could be a kingmaker if he stepped out of the race.chanel outlet” But Gingrich’s political obituary has been written before, and he’s not ready to bury his campaign yet. “Despite the many requests by the Washington establishment, I am staying in this race,” he said Wednesday. Again, his campaign has set itself benchmarks to continue: victories next Tuesday in Alabama and Mississippi, Deep South states where Gingrich — who has only won in the South — believes his firebrand style has the greatest resonance. Gingrich canceled a planned trip to Kansas in advance of the state’s caucuses on Saturday to shore up his Southern base.louis vuitton handbags for sale Gingrich has been open about a path to the nomination that begins and ends in the South. R.C. Hammond, Gingrich’s spokesman, said this week that the candidate needed to win “everything from Spartanburg [South Carolina] all the way to Texas,” but insisted the race would continue for “months.louis vuitton backpack for sale” There are obvious problems with this strategy. First, localizing a campaign in a single region — the?heartland of the Republican Party — undercuts Gingrich’s assertion that he is the only candidate capable of taking to the fight to Barack Obama, whom the GOP nominee will need to beat in swing states (and red states that Obama turned blue in 2008). Alabama and Mississippi also allocate delegates proportionally, so it will be difficult for Gingrich to make up much ground even if he revives his campaign there. And that’s hardly a guarantee.gucci handbag for sale Despite the import he’s accorded the Alabama primary, Gingrich came in third in the first two polls out of the state; an Alabama State survey released Wednesday (which curiously omitted Ron Paul) showed Gingrich nine points behind Santorum, and a poll released Thursday by the Alabama Education Association showed him 10 points behind Romney. Santorum’s super PAC has purchased TV time in both states in an attempt to finish Newt off. “Newt has become a hindrance to a conservative alternative,” Roy of the Red, White and Blue PAC said. It may make little sense for Gingrich to get out now, however.louis vuitton outlet online With Sheldon Adelson footing his TV budget, Newt needs only to maintain enough cash to ferry him around the country, where his message can speak for itself. There is little incentive to bow out when he can keep collecting delegates on the cheap, thereby increasing his leverage when it comes time to barter down the line. Even if he were to exit, Gingrich’s supporters wouldn’t necessarily file into Santorum’s column. Crunching the numbers from polls that asked about voters’ runner-up preferences, Nate Silver estimates that 57% of Gingrich fans would migrate to Santorum, with 27% lining up behind Romney and 16% picking Paul.loui vuitton (As Silver notes, the model ignores that some likely wouldn’t vote at all.) That would be a significant boost to Santorum. But at this point, having confined his campaign to states where he has a viable chance of winning, Gingrich’s share of the vote in many others is essentially negligible; according to Silver’s model, his absence wouldn’t, for example, have changed the outcome in Michigan, where Romney won an uncomfortably close three-point victory. Whether or not he can notch the necessary victories next week, Gingrich will soon be forced to consider how the terms on which he exits the race will affect the goals with which he entered it.loui vuitton Gingrich had been out of government almost 15 years when he entered the fray, long enough that a chunk of the new party establishment — and much of the national press corps — never witnessed him at the height of his powers. For a long time, his bid was maligned by the press as a glorified book tour, a way to soak up the national spotlight and convert the exposure into cash. 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One of the challenges to economic recovery in the U.gucci outlet onlineS. has been the glut of houses on the market as a result of the burst housing bubble that caused the great recession in the first place. A robust, job-creating recovery typically relies heavily on the construction sector for a substantial portion of the jobs created–I’ve seen numbers in the area of 25%. So some economists are tempering the positive economic trend by pointing out just how much of an albatross the housing sector still is.fake louis vuitton Friday’s jobs number continues the good news/bad news drift. On the one hand, employment is improving rapidly among 25-34 year-olds, the prime age group for housing demand. 74.7% were employed in February, where only 73.fake uggs9% were employed a year ago. The unemployment rate for this group dropped from 9% in January to 8.7% in February. Likewise, construction employment was up 2.loui vuitton5% compared to three months ago, a slight improvement over other job creation during the same period. But that’s not enough to pull the economy out of the housing ditch its in, says Jed Kolko, chief economist and head of analytics at Trulia. “Today??s jobs report means housing demand will pick up: as young people go back to work, they??ll be able to rent their own place or start saving for a downpayment. Construction is picking up, too, but not fast enough to lead the recovery.gucci handbag for sale To get back to its traditional share of jobs, construction needs to catch up from its long slowdown by outpacing overall growth. Right now construction employment is keeping pace with the overall economy but not growing fast enough to get back to its normal share.” Similarly, Austan Goolsbee, the former White House economist, expects housing to continue to be a drag on the recovery, and expects GDP to slow in coming months as well. In that scenario, job creation and broader economic recovery flatten over the summer, with the political consequence that Romney’s arguments against Obama gain credence.louis vuitton belts
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In April of last year, Michael Grunwald wrote a sharp piece clarifying Barack Obama’s central re-election challenge: The hallmark achievements of his first term have been prophylactic.gucci outlet online While stopping a recession from becoming a depression, reinforcing a health care infrastructure already groaning under the burden and cost of America’s sick, or thwarting domestic terror plots might sound good, they don’t lend themselves easily to a re-election message. “He is the counterfactual President,” Grunwald wrote. “And as his aides often complain, ‘I prevented a disaster’ is a lousy political slogan. Or as Democratic Congressman Barney Frank of Massachusetts has put it, ‘It would have been even worse without me’ ain’t much of a bumper sticker.fake ugg boots” Obama’s chances have always been tethered to the tremulous economy, and it was on that issue that the President had the most difficult case to make. Three and a half years after the financial crisis, unemployment is still? high. Americans never thought much of the $700 billion stimulus program Obama championed. And no matter how eloquent the President might have been? in describing the dire state of things when he took charge or the seeds of disaster he says Republicans sowed in their prior eight years of rule, Obama’s argument could be neutered with four simple words uttered by his opponents to the voting public in 2012: Are you better off? But for the first time in his presidency, there’s a glimmer of a chance that Obama won’t have to rely on this tortured counterfactual.fake ugg boots February unemployment numbers released Friday showed robust job growth and upward revisions from December and January as well. Payrolls swelled by an average of 245,000 per month over that period. The public sector losses that have put a major drag on employment are tapering off–just 7,000 government jobs were lost in the first two months of the year. A real recovery, in line with historical rates of economic rehabilitation, has finally arrived.fake louis vuitton If it continues, it could shift the burden of the counterfactual to Republicans, completely rebalancing the 2012 presidential race. Mitt Romney (most likely) would have to make the case that things would be much better now if Obama had not hampered the economy with onerous regulation. Rather than asking Americans if they’re better off, he’ll have to dive into the weeds of Big Government gone bad and persuade voters that Obama is not realizing America’s full potential. Romney and his advisers, wary of this eventuality from the outset, are beginning to adjust.fake louis vuitton Where he once described Obama as a nice guy out of his depth, Romney is now preparing a “prosecution” of the President’s economic record and how it has “hurt the middle class, given more and more people concerns about their jobs and prices, and put downward pressure on households.” Persuading Americans that they’re not OK has become part of his task. “Incomes have not risen. Gasoline prices are high,” he recently told CNBC.louis vuitton belts “The idea that everything’s fine out there in America comes from people who are detached from America.” It is not a given that the economy has reached escape velocity from the misery of the Great Recession. Normal employment is a long way off. The Fed continues to expect “modest” economic growth throughout 2012, especially in the summer months.fake ugg boots A surge in jobless Americans who had previously given up hope could return to the labor force, driving up the unemployment rate. There are enough financial explosives packed into the banks and treasuries of Europe to level the global economy if that continent’s leader are unable to defuse their crisis. Oil prices are high. And there is not sufficient polling data to tell us that the voting public is feeling hale.handbags louis vuitton But the last three months have been good. And Obama may finally be able to argue that the last three years were too.
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Rick Santorum released his tax returns to Politico’s Maggie Haberman on Wednesday night.cheap gucci belts Santorum is the third of the four remaining Republican presidential candidates to unveil a peek into his family’s finances, following Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. But he’s pulled back the curtain to a greater degree by providing four years’ worth, dating back to 2007. They provide a snapshot of a candidate whose personal wealth has blossomed since he was ousted from the Senate.? Santorum’s income climbed from $659,000 in 2007 to a peak of $1.chanel outlet1 million in 2009 before dipping back to $923,000 in 2010. He’s paid between 25% and 28.5% in taxes during those years, topping out at $310,000 in 2009. That rate is sharply higher than Mitt Romney’s, because the latter reaped his income primarily from capital gains on investments.handbags louis vuitton (MORE: The Saga of Rick Santorum’s Second Surge) Two aspects of Santorum’s tax return have attracted much of the media’s scrutiny. First, the returns show that Santorum is a wealthy guy who has profited from his Capitol Hill connections, a fact Romney’s campaign has sought to drive home by cutting ads that cast Santorum as a “Washington insider.” And he is. The former Pennsylvania Senator?likes to accentuate his blue-collar family background on the campaign trail, telling stories about his coal-mining grandfather and his public-employee parents.cheap gucci belts His campaign believes that Romney’s bearing — frequently described as “presidential” by supporters — is a hindrance in a primary whose backdrop is the economic hardship that has ravaged voters over the past few years. On the trail in New Hampshire, Santorum would announce — apropos of nothing in particular — that he’d feel great pride if one of his sons eschewed college to devote himself to being the best auto mechanic around. There is no question Santorum’s advisers see the everyman image as a selling point and are actively working to play it up, though they insist it’s genuine. They stress that he is a regular guy, the kind who’s not so far removed from the quotidian details most of us worry about, such as the price of a gallon of gas or milk.louis vuitton outlet online (He self-prepared his tax returns, for example.) They love recalling a New York Times?infographic that revealed the contrast between the scope of the candidates’ campaigns: Romney, with a phalanx of aides and a chartered jet; Santorum with a Dodge pickup and no entourage. “There’s an authenticity he has. He’s not this West Wing-created character,” says John Brabender, a Santorum strategist.louis vuitton replica “We actually think that has long-term benefits, not just in the Republican primary but in the general election.” Fair enough. But the Dodge RAM and the sweater vest are icons designed to occlude the fact that Santorum is wealthy. He’s not in Romney’s stratosphere, but by no means middle-class.cheap gucci belts The revelation that’s drawn more animated discussion is the level of Santorum’s charitable donations. From 2007 to 2010, the family donated a little more than 2% of their income to charity. The charge critics are leveling against Santorum is hypocrisy: that for a devout Catholic who stresses the importance of following church teachings, and who has made faith-based charity a personal cause, he’s not “walking the walk,” as conservative blogger Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post puts it.?CNNMoney, in a story titled “Santorum’s Charitable Donations Lag Rivals,” note that according to the IRS and CBO, people with incomes over $500,000 donate 3.louis vuitton replica4% of their wealth on average, and quotes an analyst saying, “When you put it in the context of people of faith, then it really is on the low side.” (MORE: Rick Santorum’s Unlucky Timing) A couple of points are worth noting. The?catechism?of Catholic church states that members are “obliged to assist with the material needs of the Church, each according to his own ability.” So Santorum hasn’t fallen short of any religious dictate.handbags louis vuitton By contrast, Mitt Romney belongs to the Mormon Church, which requires members to tithe 10%. Romney met that requirement in 2010 plus some, donating 13.8% of his income. While Romney’s giving was exceptional, Santorum’s was relatively average.chanel handbags for sale As the Chronicle of Philanthropy notes, in the $500k-$1 million bracket, the average charitable donation was 2.6% of total income. By contrast:?Newt Gingrich, who made $3.1 million in 2010, gave 3%.handbags louis vuitton Barack Obama, who reported $1.8 million that year, gave 13.6%. Joe Biden, as conservatives gleefully pointed out, gave less than 1% in each of the 10 years of returns he provided after being tapped for the Democratic ticket in 2008.louis vuitton handbags for sale So Santorum’s level of giving is higher than some, lower than others, and relatively in line with the national norm. Consider also his personal situation. He has seven young children for whom he provides, including a toddler with a rare illness that requires special care. The cost of living in Northern Virginia is expensive.fake uggs That’s not too say he’s a hard case. Nor does he claim to be. In a 2005 profile of Santorum, then fighting to keep his Senate seat, New York Times Magazine writer Michael Sokolove had an interesting section about the family’s financial health: [They] live in Leesburg, Va., about an hour from Washington and as close to Washington as they could afford a home big enough for their family…Santorum says he does not want his home-state voters to think he feels impoverished on his $162,100 Senate salary, but it is clear that money is a concern and that he is almost certainly one of the least well-off among the 100 senators.louis vuitton handbags for sale ”We live paycheck to paycheck, absolutely,” he says. Does he have money set aside for college? ”No. None. I always tell my kids: ‘Work hard.gucci handbag for sale We’ll take out loans. Whatever.’ ” He volunteers that his parents help out financially. ”They’re by no means wealthy — they’re two retired V.loui vuitton A. employees — but they’ll send a check every now and then. They realize things are a little tighter for us.” Santorum is far too competitive to want to lose his Senate seat, but he operates in Washington like a man who is not afraid of defeat and, on some level, would welcome its benefits.cheap gucci belts More than once in our conversations, he mentioned that losing would not be without a financial upside. ”Everyone says, ‘Senator, the worst thing that could happen to you is you could lose and spend more time with your kids and help pay for college,’ ” he told me. Indeed, losing had a financial upside. But charity is a personal choice.gucci handbag for sale I would wager that plenty of the people publicly criticizing Santorum for being “stingy” privately donate less than he does. In any event, I’m not sure why it has any bearing on whether he would make a good President.
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